A surprise missile strike by Iran on a US base in Jordan has reignited tensions between the two nations, prompting Washington to resume strikes inside Iran.
The attack, which came as a surprise to many, may indicate that Iran believes a limited war with the US serves its interests better than a fragile peace. With neither side ready for an all-out war, Iran may be trying to exploit the current situation to gain strategic leverage.
Iran’s Calculated Risk
The US has shown little appetite for a broader regional conflict, which could threaten energy infrastructure, draw in more countries, and push oil prices higher. Iran, too, wants to avoid an all-out war due to its weakened air defenses and sanctions-constrained economy.
A prolonged ceasefire could leave Tehran in a weaker position, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and sanctions remaining in place. A limited conflict, on the other hand, could allow Iran to exert pressure on the US and global energy markets, potentially forcing governments and shipowners to pay attention to its demands.
Iran may also be trying to reshape the diplomatic discussion, seeking to establish rules for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that reflect Iranian influence. An ongoing, limited conflict would enable Iran to keep the pressure on to achieve this goal.
Reactions and Implications
The conflict has already shown signs of widening, with Saudi Arabia carrying out strikes against Iran-aligned Shia groups in Iraq and taking military action against the Houthis. If disruption to global trade and energy markets continues, other countries may become more willing to support efforts to increase pressure on Iran.
The situation is precarious, with Iran absorbing repeated military strikes and economic uncertainty. While a controlled conflict may offer more leverage than an imperfect peace, it also carries significant risks, including the possibility of a much wider war.
