A new study reveals that the abrupt end of USAID funding has led to a surge in violence in Africa, with a significant increase in conflicts and attacks in areas that previously received aid.
The research, published in the journal Science, found that the sudden withdrawal of aid funding led to a rise in overall conflict in places within Africa that had received aid, compared to those that had not. Austin Wright, a data scientist at the University of Chicago, says that the rapid collapse of USAID’s humanitarian assistance program had enormous consequences on the ground, undermining livelihoods and leading to a surge in violence.
Violence and Aid Cuts
The study analyzed data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, a detailed independent database of violent conflict, and found that places that once received more assistance tended to experience more conflict once that aid abruptly disappeared. This was often because those who had relied on that aid had become more vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups.
The researchers considered a map of USAID funds disbursed at the state or provincial level preceding the termination of the agency and overlayed it with conflict activity, including armed clashes, protests, riots, and violence against civilians. The data from the ten months before and after early 2025 showed that the elimination of USAID investments corresponded to an increase in violent activity.
For example, protests broke out at the Kakuma refugee camp in northwest Kenya in July 2025, where roughly 300,000 refugees depended on food and other services paid for by USAID. After the cuts, food distributions were sharply reduced, and refugees took to the streets, throwing rocks and setting things on fire, resulting in one death.
Reactions and Implications
The US State Department responded to the study, saying that the Trump administration has made unprecedented progress towards the advancement of peace on the continent. However, the researchers argue that the sudden withdrawal of aid funding has had devastating consequences, including the loss of economic opportunities and the animation of individual motivations to fight.
The study’s findings have significant implications for US foreign policy and the impact of aid cuts on global stability. The researchers conclude that the abrupt dismantling of USAID has led to a surge in violence in Africa, highlighting the need for a more nuanced approach to foreign aid and conflict prevention.
The study’s results serve as a warning about the potential consequences of sudden aid cuts, and the need for policymakers to consider the potential impact on conflict and violence when making decisions about foreign aid. The broader significance of this study lies in its contribution to our understanding of the complex relationship between aid, conflict, and violence, and the need for a more thoughtful and sustainable approach to foreign aid and development.
